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Libs and PCs neck and neck: Poll

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Ontario Liberals and Progressive Conservatives are locked in a statistical tie among likely voters heading into the final stretch of the provincial campaign.

Abacus Data Inc. CEO David Coletto said that the poll found a slight decrease in Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne’s support following the leaders debate, and an increase in the number of voters saying they’ll back NDP Leader Andrea Horwath.

Among likely voters, the Liberals and Tories are tied with 34% support each and the NDP moved up two points from last week to 26%.

Coletto said the numbers break down differently if all eligible voters polled are factored in with the Liberals ahead 34% to the PC’s 31% and the NDP at 28%.

“Our numbers do show that whether it was the debate, or whatever was the cause in the last week, the Liberal numbers have softened. The Tories, unfortunately for them, haven’t benefited,” Coletto said Monday. “It’s pretty much all gone to the New Democrats at this point, so much at this time that the NDP among all voters aren’t that far behind the Tories in terms of the popular vote.”

NDP supporters tend to be younger and less likely to vote, while Tory supporters are considered more committed and motivated to make the trek to the polling station.

Hudak appears to have hit a ceiling with many Ontarians expressing negative views of him, possibly as a result of the highly negative advertising aimed his way by public sector unions, he said.

Most voters still pick Wynne as the “best premier” of the top three contenders, and public servants are increasingly indicating they will vote Liberal, he added.

Coletto said there is no single burning issue for voters with some pointing to trust in government — a bad topic for the Liberals — and others looking at social programs, a loser for the PCs.

That finding, and the statistical tie, makes this race too close to call, he said.

The election could come down to a riding-by-riding, election-day battle, he said.

“The last piece of the puzzle is how good are the machines on the ground in the local ridings. That might be the difference between who gets more seats at the end of the day,” he said.

Another revelation that could throw a wrench into Thursday’s results is the finding that about half of Ontarians don’t like any of their choices.

“There’s a lot of volatility and no loyalty,” he said.

Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 eligible Ontario voters online between June 4-7, and the results are considered accurate within 3.1%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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