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Trump presidency forces Trudeau to walk softly

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You don't need a degree in translation to understand that when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau decries fear and division or embraces Syrian refugees, he has in mind a certain chaotically disruptive, wildly controversial president with combed-over hair, who last Friday introduced a Muslim ban that has rightly put the United States and the rest of the world in an uproar.

The question is whether the Liberal government's indirect route of calculated dissent will hold and if so, for how long -- particularly as shock and grief in the aftermath of the massacre Sunday in Sainte-Foy, Que., turns to anger.

Six men were murdered while at prayer, apparently targeted because of their Muslim faith. Five were critically wounded. A 27-year-old Quebecer, Alexandre Bissonnette, faces six counts of first-degree murder and five counts of attempted murder. According to credible reports, Bissonette is a recent convert to the far right who, in social media posts, supported Trumpist positions on immigration and refugee policy.

It would be irrational and unfair for Canadians to blame this barbarity on Trump, let alone more broadly on America. Many people are bigots, as a glance at the comments section of any news site will show, and don't become mass murderers. Moreover, Islamophobia was present in Canada long before Trump entered politics.

That doesn't change the reality, which is that some will look to Trump's policies and the timing of the Sainte-Foy massacre and draw a link.

Setting aside popular ire that was bound to bubble up in Canada over Trump's upending of international norms and anger at the imminent collapse of the North American trading partnership, it's a recipe for a spike in anti-Americanism unseen in this country, maybe, since the days of Sir John A. Macdonald.

There are sound reasons why Trudeau has taken a non-confrontational approach. There's a historical parallel with the 1980s, when Prime Minister Brian Mulroney trod the tightrope between economic need and rising Canadian nationalism.

Mulroney came to power in 1984, four years after Reagan was elected U.S. president. On some issues -- the environment and South African apartheid -- their views diverged. On others, such as mutual defence and trade, they agreed. Reagan, a Republican cold warrior derided by critics as a mere former Hollywood actor, was not popular in left-leaning Canada.

But in contrast with his predecessor, Pierre Trudeau, Mulroney made a friend of the president. In 1985 they warbled When Irish Eyes Are Smiling together at the Shamrock Summit. But Mulroney later quietly badgered Reagan into the acid rain treaty. Then he landed the bilateral free-trade agreement that became the North American Free Trade Agreement, the foundation of Canadian job growth for the past quarter-century.

Mulroney's approach to bilateral diplomacy, which Justin Trudeau appears to have borrowed, is to first acknowledge this is the paramount file for any Canadian prime minister because the slightest "thickening" of the border can plunge Canada into an economic crisis; and next, to nurture relationships, not just at the head-of-government level but also the legislative, to advance Canada's interests.

The worry is that the strategy can only go so far because Trump is not Reagan. If this president continues to veer beyond the caustic and controversial into the recklessly destructive, he risks making himself universally loathed. If that happens, diplomacy gets checked by rising nationalist fury on this side of the border. And we are, truly, in uncharted territory.

Twitter.com/mdentandt

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