Oscars 2017: Who will win and who should win
Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling dance in a scene from La La Land. (Handout Photo)
Is it time for the Oscar pool?
Let’s check out the betting news from sources including Jimmy Shapiro (quoting Bodog) and Dan Grody, whose handicappers hail from sportsbettingexperts.com
The big prediction? It’s still a sweep for La La Land, a movie we have tried and failed to get behind, adorable though it may be.
With 14 nominations, the movie is tied with Titanic and All About Eve for most Oscar nods ever.
(Since we know you’re wondering, Titanic, Ben Hur and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, are the winningest movies with 11 trophies apiece.)
And La La Land will likely win most of the categories in which it’s nominated – after all, when it comes to voting for Oscar, there’s nothing the Academy members love more than stories about tinseltown and themselves, which is exactly what La La Land is.
Those interested in putting money on more than just winners might consider making up bets about Oscar fixture Meryl Streep or recently returned prodigal son Mel Gibson, who, courtesy of Hacksaw Ridge, is back in the bosom of the loving, forgiving and empathetic Hollywood community.
Sorry. Just having a laugh.
What follows is a list of who will win an Oscar in the six main categories and who should win.
WILL WIN: La La Land
Or Deadpool, which at least got you to laugh whilst examine the same sort of material. And won a 90% audience rating.
WILL WIN: Damien Chazelle, La La Land. Chazelle, who also wrote and directed Whiplash, is a great director, no question.
Whether he’s the Best Director of 2016 via La La Land is the issue.
SHOULD WIN: Barry Jenkins for Moonlight. Let’s start with directing three different actors to play the same character at different life stages. And making it work.
WILL WIN: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea. (But with Denzel Washington for Fences coming up right behind him.)
SHOULD WIN: Casey Affleck. Or Denzel Washington.
WILL WIN: Emma Stone, La La Land.
SHOULD WIN: Isabelle Huppert, even if you didn’t like the movie Elle. Or thought it was a black comedy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (But with Dev Patel for Lion breathing down his neck.)
SHOULD WIN: Mahershala Ali. Or any of the actors on the list, all of whom were stellar.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
WILL WIN: Viola Davis, Fences.
SHOULD WIN: Viola Davis, Fences.
This is a particular runaway win, according to the bookies.
Is it that Davis is so much better an actress or is it that everyone loves her and she is a huge favourite thanks to all those movies and stuff like How To Get Away With Murder?
WILL WIN: La La Land. Every industry vote has shown it love, most significantly the Producers Guild Awards – usually an accurate Best Picture predictor.
SHOULD WIN: Arrival. La La Land is an enjoyable “feel good” movie, but Denis Villeneuve’s smartly imagined take on First Contact will endure as an important sci-fi film.
WILL WIN: Damian Chazelle. He won the Director’s Guild Award, and in 68 years, only seven DGA winners haven’t won the Oscar.
SHOULD WIN: Damian Chazelle. Use of colour, extended shots, framing Los Angeles like a love letter, creating a mood. Whether you liked the story or the singing or the dancing, this is inarguably one beautiful piece of filming from someone only 32 years old.
WILL WIN: Denzel Washington. He won a SAG award, which is pretty good predictor, and there might be a tendency to make good after #oscarssowhite among the voters.
SHOULD WIN: Casey Affleck. Denzel’s was a loud, angry, wounded performance. Affleck’s was a quietly angry, wounded performance. Both solid, but Affleck’s required him to rein it in, which is harder.
WILL WIN: Emma Stone. A SAG Award and a Golden Globe say so.
SHOULD WIN: Natalie Portman. Her subtle, controlled, all-face portrayal of Jackie Kennedy post-Dallas is the kind of performance you see maybe once a decade.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali. A SAG Award, a Golden Globe, every other critics award. The fact that the lead in Moonlight was played by different actors left Ali as the acting glue that made Moonlight such a solid work.
SHOULD WIN: Michael Shannon in Nocturnal Animals. This is a very strong category (and it omits Ralph Fiennes’ great comedic turn in Hail, Caesar!). Still, Shannon is unforgettable in Nocturnal Animals as a terminally-ill sheriff on a last-ditch search for justice.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
WILL WIN: Viola Davis. Again, she’s won nearly every award out there leading up to the Oscars. It helps that her Fences nomination should have been for Best Actress. Pound for pound, she did more acting in that movie than any of the other nominees.
SHOULD WIN: Octavia Spencer. Given that Davis doesn’t even belong in the category, Hidden Figures was a terrific team effort and SOMEBODY from that film deserves to win.